In the racing vernacular, the word ‘rating’ is thrown around a fair bit… It can mean a number of things: A computer generated number (rating) given to a horse based on racetrack performances; a ranking of horses relative to one-another with a mix between statistics and human involvement/opinion; or even simply an opinion given on a race whereby the punter ‘ranks’ each horse from favourite to least favourite. These “ratings” are quite different from the ‘ratings-based racing’ which has arrived recently to racing.

So what are ratings-based races? Basically each horse is given a “rating” which is updated after every start they have. A horse cannot run in a race which is rated under their level. For example, if their rating is 69 then they cannot run in a 68RB (Ratings-Based) race, where as they can race in a 70RB (or higher obviously).

Whilst there are many advantages RBH (Ratings-Based Handicapping) offers, it must be remembered that it will not always provide the same adjustments that are usually afforded by “discretionary” handicapping. (i.e. using human opinion to issuing a horse’s weight) We cannot expect that a horse having a “ratings” adjustment after a particular race, will meet each runner that finished in front of him or her in that race, on better terms in the next race.

Statistics in racing are everywhere but there is one website with unprecedented strike-rates and that is OzRacingForm.com which is run and operated by David Gately. He can boast a near 85% strike-rate in his top-rated runners in both Melbourne and Sydney. (broken down, that means he finds the winner of the race in his top-five selections on or near 85% of the time) We asked how his strike-rate remains at such a level of such a long period of time. David says: “I think people can over complicate and over evaluate races, it is quite rare that there are more than four or five ‘winning chances’ in a race and that’s where we draw the line. Ok, they are animals and not motorbikes so there are always strange results on occasions, but we stick to a basic formula, bet to value runners, and enjoy a good deal of success”.

Racehorses can fluctuate their form just like human athletes can. Unfortunately though, racehorses cannot talk. So we, as punters, are required to recognise signals and signs from horses at either their previous run, or pre-race, that indicate what stage physically and mentally they are at, in order to find a winner. For example, a horse charges home in a slowly run race early in it’s preparation, this sends off obvious warning signs it is ready to win and may even be looking for extra distance. Another example might be if a horse leads, but is ‘taken on’ by other horses and given little peace. He may well fail in that particular race but then find a softer run up or near the lead at his next start and come out and win, at some value!

It is all about knowing the horses Knowing which horse is comfortable at which distance, at which track, is s/he is better leading or ridden from behind, is s/he better suited on wet or dry ground, is s/he more likely to race well if outside other horses and not cluttered up between them? If you can look at a race and know each horse’s traits or ‘clicks’… You are well on your way to finding a winner.

So, ratings-based racing should not be too scary, obviously it is a little more in-depth than say, simply a set-weights maiden. (where all horses are maidens (yet to win a race) and have the same weight) However, as explained, this type of racing can be full of ‘value’ (horses over their true odds of winning).

David Gately, disappointed by the number of “professional” organisations out there, trying to make a quick buck by flogging rubbish horse racing tips, continues to offer quality information at the best prices around.. This article, Ratings Based Racing: Are You confused? is released under a creative commons attribution license.

categories: horse races,sports betting,gambling tips,gambling,sport,recreation